There is going to be a communal infrastructure failure in winter. Some people are going to freeze.

Heroyam Slava!

Yes, we will break away from the empire and prosper, like Poland did.

The outdated empires will go extinct like dinosaurs have, with a healthy international order of sovereign nations emerging.

2028 is precisely the year when Moscovia will be cornered, since it still has big enough oil and gas profits: https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/ukraine-spy-chief-russia-putin-war-gjk6w0h86 https://substack.com/@praxisuk

Instead of conquering territories, it would be desperate simply to break the NATO, and a hybrid “rebellion”, say, in Narva, would be a perfect complement to the forthcoming Chinese attack on Taiwan, exactly at a time when the US and EU will be weaker.

Well, they already emphasize on their TV that they are standing against the NATO.

Let me tell you the scenario we must be prepared for:

During contested 2028-2029 US election period, making use of the US internal polarization and strife, and the rise of right parties in Europe, China launches an attack on Taiwan, North Korea on South Korea, Iran and Houthis with Hamas on Arab States and Israel, and Moscovia launches an attack on Baltic States - all perfectly coordinated and simultaneous.

If you study the history of WWII, you discover how alliances slowly crystallized and radicalised. First there were proxy wars, like those in Spain or Manchuria, until finally the superpowers, first rather unwillingly, went into full action.

I’m afraid that is how history works, and the coordinated clash of superpowers themselves, namely of the US and China with their alliances, appears extremely likely, even though people try to avoid it.

The brutal natural selection happens on this grand scale as well, whether we like it or not.

Thank you for your kind support 🙏🏻 When I donate, I do it directly to people I know personally. So I trust your own judgement in donating.

Thank you for your compassion 🙏🏻

The Ukraine is situated at the open crossroads of imperial conquests, with its people slaughtered en masse or deceived many times. Being deceived, we even participated in imperial conquests, with a heavy price to pay. Hence war is one of the things Ukrainians are highly experienced in.

So it appears that the history decided that we are hardened enough, and gave us a chance to show up and try to build and defend a free Ukraine, with the first ever strong international support, that we never had previously.

A ceasefire sounds very rational and logical to sane observers. Yet it is impossible.

Moscovia is cursed by its usual conundrum: huge resources are invested into Czar’s “face”, and they can’t be pulled out in any way except the demotion of the Czar.

His “face” is the consensus of the Kremlin towers. It must be infallible until it is overturned, as you rightly describe. So they can’t back off on their insane annexation decisions, which they have already embedded in their “constitution”, until their whole empire collapses, with internal convulsions you mention.

They similarly lost wars many times previously, when Moscovia faced a consolidated international coalition. And the Czar was demoted every time.

On the other hand, the ceasefire was tried many times before, during Minsk agreements. It proved to be impossible, since Moscovians lack the discipline to maintain it, and can’t agree to the presence of foreign troops to enforce it.

So indeed this is a long game.

Thank you for your wholehearted support for Ukraine 🙏🏻 The painful transformation of the world order is still far from over, yet it seems we are doing our humble parts rather well.

Indeed, Ukraine didn’t stop the strikes, emphasizing that any ceasefire must be mutual.

The foundational argument—that Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining infrastructure do more harm to global markets than to the frontline military effort—was first developed by the Biden administration in March–April 2024.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin explicitly warned Kyiv in 2024 against striking Russian oil refineries, arguing that it risked triggering a global energy shock.

I talked with many Russians. Most of the elite is xenophobic and chauvinistic, behind a thin cultured veneer. This attitude evolved due to Russia evolving as an empire, and is deeply embedded by centuries of conditioning.

This happens in any empire - some Greeks, Italians, Serbians, etc. still have remnants of imperial arrogance, despite their empires long gone.

Putin rose in popularity when he suppressed and slaughtered the rebellious colony of Chechnya. However likeable individual Russians are, the “imperial boomerang” will hit them again and again, unless their ideal of mighty empire is finally humbled. They are going to suppress other countries, since this is the very nature of an empire.

I’m so glad he is alive and relatively well. Sounds like he is a big hearted person.

This is rather bulldozing all nuances in order to equalize wholesale the victim and the aggressor.