TLDR: Tesla will have as many robotaxis as Waymo in the year 2111, if the current growth rate holds (and if Waymo doesn’t add a single additional vehicle). So… I’m guessing the Tesla stock price will skyrocket.
Catch up to what? Waymo is still losing money.
Just how big do people think the taxi market is?
It’s always interesting how these things are worded. Rather than say there’s X amount of them now active and information about it, it’s compared to a company that has little reason to invest in a market that most of the US doesn’t care about.
The city I live in has 400,000 people, so not like a huge city but not BFE. We have zero taxis automated, and no “human” taxis driving around. We have Uber and such still. Point being, there’s only like a dozen US cities that actually use taxis regularly and this might be realistically viable. Tesla just doesn’t care in general, the hyper loop failed massively already for them.
How big? Potentially huge if you can get people to abandon car ownership by having a super convenient offering. Owning/leasing/maintaining a car is already expensive. We seem to be running at a situation where lower priced new cars become the thing of the past.
Here’s the problem for Tesla: their “full self driving” doesn’t fucking work. I had it for years (first run model 3) and it was always 1 step forward, 1 back. Make one thing better, another gets worse. This was still the case when I dumped my 3 after The Salute. I never got what I paid for.
They’re clearly still in the same predicament, so instead they have “supervisors” remote-controlling the cars. Musk simply refuses to acknowledge this fact and keeps promising it indefinitely. And people keep believing it.
You got exactly what you paid for. You paid to be a beta tester.
Wrong. I was sold full self driving and the date was promised. And then promised. And then promised. “By the end of the year”, “before thanksgiving “, and on and on. Full self driving.
They definitely always said it was a beta program. You fell for the con. I get that you’re upset, but got got what they sold to you.
It’s called Full Self Driving. You’re forgetting history here. Don’t smugly blame me for being a mark when it literally said on their site that the car will be able to drive me door to door, park itself, and come get me later. Beta or not, this was the actual promise. They made very specific claims with concrete dates. They lied. I didn’t get what they sold me. Yes, it was a con, but that literally means I didn’t get what they sold me.
Yes, they tricked you by giving it that name. But they gave all kinds of fine print saying it was a beta program you were buying into.
A beta program means the features exist and you agree to help report issues. They lied about what would even be in the beta program.
And people keep believing it.
At this point I’m not sure anyone believes it. I think everyone is just hoping there will still be enough suckers down the road to make some money before it collapses.
look, i don’t like tesla either, but assuming a linear progression here is probably really naive and wrong. they know how to scale up, once their tech is on point, look at the rate falcon 9s deliver starlink sats in LEO.
Yeah any day now
The thing is that waymo did this without decades of training data arriving per day. Tesla is worryingly far behind on the actual self-driving tech from an investor’s perspective.
If anyone is still invested in Tesla at this point, they deserve to lose their shi®t.
Now if they’re newly invested, that may be another story entirely. Assuming the battery & solar biz doesn’t get spun off.
The thing is that waymo did this
Except they didn’t. Self-driving is effectively nonexistent for both companies
I was actually surprised that Waymo had only thousands of units in operation.
That being said, 3,000 commercially operating for years with zero fatalities, that’s not nothing. It’s not a ton, it doesn’t change the world (much), but it isn’t zero. Tesla’s result so far rounds down to zero.
There’s also tons of incidents of Waymo robo-taxis speeding through school zones, turning the wrong way onto one-way streets, and stopping in the middle of the road obstructing traffic. And this is carefully curated sections of cities that they are contained in.
The lack of fatalities seems to be in spite of Waymo, not because of
They constantly need manual corrections by humans remoting in, much like with Tesla. So downvote me all you want, it doesn’t change the fact that both companies can’t achieve what they claim.
Do they know how to scale up an autonomous taxi service? I mean, maybe? There’s no sign of that anywhere in the Tesla data, though.
The original target was Robotaxis to cover “half the US population by the end of 2025,” so we’re nowhere close to on-target, and those goals weren’t given with any asterix on the earnings call when they were declared. I don’t see any reason to move the goalpost, it’s just a miss taken to a funny conclusion.
Musk’s deadlines always have been pure fantasy. But i’m seeing real life hands on reviews of autonomous driving in various places, even Amsterdam with a mayhem of canals and cyclists, it’s not entirely there but damn impressive.
The rollout of the cars themselves will be a non issue, they control the factories to pump out the vehicles as they need it, unlike waymo’s retrofit way of doing things.
I can’t predict the future, had a company car tesla model 3 from 2019 with “full potential for self driving” and after 4 years when the leasing contract ran out, it was still barely on the level of a teenager on their 5th driving lesson. They might very well never reach the point where it’s good enough for the real world and stay on really predictable paths.
it’s not entirely there but damn impressive
Maybe, if you believe they’re actually autonomous and not just being secretly driven remotely.
heh sorry i left my tin foil hat at home when writing this :P
Yep it’s like saying when Tesla had 0 on the road it would take an infinite amount of time to catch up.
And with any number of them falling out of the sky in a few more years, maybe those two numbers will meet in short time.
Is it called ‘unsuperwised’ if the staff is from India? (Or does it have to be from the Philippines?)
/s
It uses AI! Actual Indians!
Given the comparative rate of growth, they’ll never catch up.
