China can already strike northern Australia with ballistic missiles deployed to its South China Sea outposts, and its capacity to hit the Australian mainland will grow substantially over the next decade, a new Lowy Institute Analysis warns.

The Analysis, entitled Understanding the Chinese military threat to Australia, by Sam Roggeveen and David Vallance, provides a comprehensive public assessment of the military threat China poses to Australia.

The authors track the dramatic rise in Chinese defence spending over the past 30 years, estimating it will reach approximately US$977 billion by 2035 — almost double the current figure.

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The report’s key findings, opens pdf:

• China’s ability to direct military force against Australia operates primarily through domains other than direct strikes on the Australian landmass. Its ability to interdict Australia’s maritime trade, sever undersea communications infrastructure, conduct sophisticated cyber operations, and project naval power into Australian waters is robust and will grow substantially over the coming decade.
• China can already strike northern Australia with ballistic missiles deployed to its South China Sea outposts, and its capacity to strike the Australian landmass from Chinese territory will grow over the next decade as the DF-27 intermediate-range ballistic missile, and potentially a conventionally armed intercontinental ballistic missile, grow in service numbers.
• Two factors could quickly and dramatically escalate the strike threat against the Australian landmass: China could field a new long-range bomber (a crewed or drone aircraft), or it could deploy existing bombers and missiles to bases closer to Australia.
• China’s military build-up has already eroded US military primacy in the Indo-Pacific, increased the threat to Taiwan, and created structural pressure on regional states to accommodate Beijing’s preferences. These shifts affect Australian security regardless of China’s capacity to strike Australian territory.