The article is quite insightful, however I would love to have more meat on the analysis on what’s the exact time frame we have for the negotiation here. Oil supply logistic can’t be switch on and off completely overnight, so that actual deadline for negotiation can be like weeks, months or days away depend on reserves, transportation and production ramp up etc.
From what I’ve read, there’s no way to restore shipments in the foreseeable future even if the war ended tomorrow. Just clearing the backlog of current tankers is going to take a whole year. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/23/dow-ceo-says-clearing-the-strait-of-hormuz-logjam-will-take-almost-a-year.html
US military spends a trillion dollars on military every year. Iran can keep the straight closed with access to whatever drones are available at the nearest Walmart haha. They could send out a thousand soldiers and say walk to the nearest Walmart or hardware store and buy the cheapest drone you can find and walk back. With this strategy Iran can keep the straight of Hormuz closed indefinitely.
Obviously they don’t have to walk to Walmart they have a whole country of infrastructure. Even if Israel nukes Iran they can keep the straight closed indefinitely.
Does he? At this point, unless the people begin to fucking riot, nothing is gonna change In the next few years. US is going to continue going down the shitty path it’s currently on.
Suppose that’s pretty good for the rest of the world though.
nothing is gonna change In the next few years. US is going to continue going down the shitty path it’s currently on.
The path they are on is the conclusion of decades of US imperialism. What’s happening in the middle east is the result of their foreign policy, that has remained unchanged for longer than both our lifetimes.
Thinking otherwise (“oh if people had only just voted for the genocide apologist neoliberal lesser evil…”), is just juvenile.
I don’t have a crystal ball, but I do know this - oil reserves globally have been sinking fast, with levels predicted to reach near or actual zero by July, just in time for the traditional yearly mass travel period for Americans. Crops have been planted in half their usual numbers because of a lack of affordable fertilizer, and those crop shortages won’t be seen or felt until fall and winter at the earliest, but will be felt hard in winter and next spring, thanks to how crops and agricultural production works. Gas will continue to climb in prices, goods will continue to climbs in prices, until they’re unaffordable or there’s runs on necessary goods and perceived wants/needs. Then will come the lines. Then will come the anger when people go home without enough, or without any.
So will they riot? Maybe not. But people have become much less social and community oriented since Covid, and since the attention economy has used algorithms to make people more extreme and more narcissistic than they were during shortages in the 70s and 80s, so i can tell you this - it won’t be pretty, whatever happens. It won’t be business as usual. Trust this old person. I know people, and I know the industries that are about to fuck it all up, after decades of warnings about just this kind of nexus of events in a perfect storm of shit.
People will stock up on dumb shit like toilet paper first
faces a political crisis if it isn’t opened by labor day… ?
boy, Trump is already in one, even after Mayday, what makes him think it won’t get worse by fake Labor Day!
What a STUPID Comment! As a Free Thinking Alpha Wolf Republican Trump could LITERALLY RAPE GOD ON TV and I would STILL vote for Him!
Big Mac? Like the My Little Pony dude?
What has that cod ever done to deserve that?
I don’t expect it to be opened for at least A year at this rate.
same, and when it does open then it’s going to be under Iranian control and on their terms
yup. there is no scenario in which iran does not extract monetary compensation for strategic control over a resource that the US village idiot intends to hang us all with.
capitalists and rope, man.
US military spends a trillion dollars on military every year. Iran can keep the straight closed with access to whatever drones are available at the nearest Walmart haha
Good.
